Thursday, December 14, 2006

Paradox, noun, A problem no merehum is smart enough to solve.

My favorite Blog BoingBoing.net posted an interesting logic problem earlier today known as the Newcomb Paradox, and needless to say it peaked my intrest. Link to a complete dissertation and analysis here, I do suggest reading it or you may miss all they 'layers' to this 'onion'. The reader's digest version follows below:

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A highly superior being from another part of the galaxy presents you with two boxes, one open and one closed. In the open box there is a thousand-dollar bill. In the closed box there is either one million dollars or there is nothing. You are to choose between taking both boxes or taking the closed box only. But there's a catch.

The being claims that he is able to predict what any human being will decide to do. If he predicted you would take only the closed box, then he placed a million dollars in it. But if he predicted you would take both boxes, he left the closed box empty. Furthermore, he has run this experiment with 999 people before, and has been right every time.

What do you do?

On the one hand, the evidence is fairly obvious that if you choose to take only the closed box you will get one million dollars, whereas if you take both boxes you get only a measly thousand. You'd be stupid to take both boxes.

On the other hand, at the time you make your decision, the closed box already is empty or else contains a million dollars. Either way, if you take both boxes you get a thousand dollars more than if you take the closed box only.

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Now sure, I'm that arrogant brand of Yeti who thinks he's always right. An egotist until x-day as it were, but I see a simple solution here.

I take the closed box, then reach into the open box and take the $1k bill but leave the box itself. The superior being in question would have accuratly predicted that I would do this. Taking only the closed box with the $1000k and still also take the 1k note without removing the empty box doesn't queer the parameters of the experiment, if it were outside the rules of the situation, he would have predicted I would try this and warned me against it.

Oh sure, some may argue that I'm dancing around the rules on this one, but really: aren't rules only for pinks and other sheep?

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